News • 12.10.2021

NRF Economist: "Watch what consumers do, not what they say" as recovery continues

Despite falling consumer confidence, shoppers are continuing to spend

many microphones are pointed at a man who is giving an interview...
Source: © PantherMedia / Mihajlo Maricic

“With consumer spending accounting for roughly two-thirds of U.S. gross domestic product, all eyes are closely watching shoppers’ ability to drive the economy,” NRF economist Kleinhenz said.

“If consumer finances are any indication, there’s reason to be optimistic: Households remain in good shape, with consumers in the aggregate actually underspending relative to current income. Even though enhanced unemployment benefits have expired and are no longer providing a boost to personal income, the loss is easily offset by the savings stockpiled since the coronavirus pandemic began.”

Kleinhenz’s remarks came in the October issue of NRF’s Monthly Economic Review, which noted that consumers’ mid-summer savings rate of 9.6 percent rate was noticeably above pre-pandemic levels and that income growth going forward should benefit from expected strong employment gains and higher wages while Child Tax Credit checks being issued through December will also provide a bump.

The report comes as COVID-19 has returned as a “major impediment” to consumer confidence because of the delta variant. The seven-day average of both new cases and deaths reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention soared from pandemic lows in early summer to six-month highs in September and remain high despite tapering off. The Federal Reserve attributed a deceleration in economic growth in late summer to a pullback in dining out, travel and tourism as the spread of the virus made the public more cautious. The impact was seen in August when payrolls rose by only 235,000 jobs nationwide, down from a gain of 1.1 million the month before.

In mid-September, the Fed lowered its forecast for gross domestic product growth for the year to 5.9 percent from 7 percent, and the agency expects unemployment to end the year at 4.8 percent rather than 4.4 percent. Inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index was up 5.2 percent year-over-year in August, fueled by consumer demand and supply chain disruptions, and a Fed survey found consumers expect an equal amount of growth over the next 12 months. Amid those numbers, the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to 71 in September, far below its pandemic high of 88.3 in April and the lowest confidence level since the beginning of the pandemic.

Despite all that, August retail sales as calculated by NRF rose sharply, up 2.3 percent month-over-month and 12 percent year-over-year. That brought the first eight months of the year to a 15 percent year-over-year gain and on track to meet NRF’s forecast of between 10.5 and 13.5 percent growth for the full year.

“That strong momentum shows there’s a big disconnect between consumer confidence and consumer spending at the moment and that the downdraft in confidence may well be a false scent,” Kleinhenz said. “There’s a saying that you should never underestimate the American consumer – and its corollary is that you should watch what consumers do, not what they say.”

Source: NRF

related articles:

popular articles:

Thumbnail-Photo: Ynvisible supports sustainable fashion with digital price labels...
13.05.2022   #digitization #sustainability

Ynvisible supports sustainable fashion with digital price labels

New generation is easily readable, flexible and customizable

Ynvisible Interactive Inc. has announced that Digety, a company creating electronic price labels for the fashion industry, has selected Ynvisible as the supplier of displays for its re-usable digital price labels. Digety’s price labels ...

Thumbnail-Photo: Increase sales rank thanks to product information...
12.05.2022   #online trading #Tech in Retail

Increase sales rank thanks to product information

How improving product pages helps brands thrive on Amazon

Salsify's recent report "The Content Advantage: How Improvements to the Product Page Help Brands Succeed on Amazon", analysed over 14,000 products across all major product categories in the U.K., France and Germany, outlining the most ...

Thumbnail-Photo: 4 tips for improving retail customer experience...
12.04.2022   #customer satisfaction #Tech in Retail

4 tips for improving retail customer experience

Customer experience can make or break a retail business, so it's vital to get it right

In the retail industry, customer experience is one of the most critical elements for success. It serves as the foundation for customer loyalty, repeat business, and word-of-mouth referrals. In other words, an excellent customer experience is what ...

Thumbnail-Photo: Lush is giving away 100,000 Bath Bombs
26.04.2022   #marketing #in-store marketing

Lush is giving away 100,000 Bath Bombs

Bath bomb inventors celebrate World Bath Bomb Day with big marketing campaign

On Wednesday 27th April you can head to your nearest Lush shop and pick up a bath bomb to take home while stocks last. World Bath Bomb Day is the beginning of a series of activities to celebrate taking a Lush bath.Alongside the giveaway, Lush ...

Thumbnail-Photo: First speakers of EBE2022 - meet them!
17.02.2022   #trade fair consulting #trade fair special

First speakers of EBE2022 - meet them!

The agenda is almost finished, the first speakers are confirmed

The Ecommerce Berlin Expo 2022 is coming up, and we have some exciting news. The agenda is almost finished, and the first speakers are already confirmed - we're proud to announce them here! Let’s have a closer look at them.About E-commerce ...

Thumbnail-Photo: Top 500 European cross-border online shops
06.04.2022   #online trading #e-commerce

Top 500 European cross-border online shops

4th edition of the annual ranking by Cross-Border Commerce Europe

Cross-Border Commerce Europe, the platform that stimulates cross-border e-commerce in Europe, releases a major research paper covering and ranking the 500 strongest European players with a focus on cross-border performance.The total online EU ...

Thumbnail-Photo: DTC and brick-and-mortar brands use value-driven personalization to...
22.04.2022   #customer relationship management #customer experience

DTC and brick-and-mortar brands use value-driven personalization to score big

Winners of Sailthru’s Retail Personalization Index 2022: Thrive Market, Sephora, DSW, Best Buy, Adidas

Sailthru announced the results of the 2022 Retail Personalization Index. Thrive Market, the health-first membership for conscious living, and Sephora, global beauty retailer, have tied for the top spot in the 5th annual analysis. ...

Thumbnail-Photo: Gen Z: The future of spending
08.04.2022   #mobile payment #sustainability

Gen Z: The future of spending

Survey of ‘Zoomers’ in 13 countries spotlights how the world’s most digitally-adept consumers are forcing change to decades-old business practices

To achieve growth and success past 2030, businesses must start to understand the living, shopping, and financial habits of Gen Z or Zoomers (consumers aged between 16 and 24) now - and accept that they are very different from previous generations. ...

Thumbnail-Photo: Cross-border e-commerce to exceed $2 trillion for first time in 2023...
14.04.2022   #e-commerce #payment systems

Cross-border e-commerce to exceed $2 trillion for first time in 2023

Juniper Research: Cross-border e-commerce to account for 38% of all e-commerce transactions globally by value in 2023

A new study from Juniper Research has found that the value of cross-border e-commerce will exceed $2.1 trillion in 2023, from $1.9 trillion in 2022. This growth of over 13% in a single year reflects the increasing success of marketplaces which offer ...

Thumbnail-Photo: Lowes reimagines DIY learning and shopping experiences...
08.03.2022   #digital marketing #online marketing

Lowe's reimagines DIY learning and shopping experiences

Launch of shoppable learning platform DIY-U with in-store workshops and livestreams

Homeowners continue to invest in home improvement, and with millennials driving homeownership rates, there's a new generation of DIYers seeking a transformation in how-to learning and experiences. To engage this new wave of home improvers, ...

Supplier

salsify
salsify
7 rue de Madrid
75008 Paris
Canto GmbH
Canto GmbH
Lietzenburger Str. 46
10789 Berlin